Saturday, September 3, 2011

August Wrap Up, Variance, Downswing, Borgata Open and September Goals

Hey guys it has been a while since I updated so this one might be a bit long. For the month of August I ended up profiting ~4k in cash which is alright but not spectacular. At my peak I was up around 5k but downswongs are fairly normal things so whatever.

In the last 10 days I have lost money. I think I am down nearly 2k since my height including today. You don't want to hear about the bad beats I am taking but trust me when I say that I have lost with 80% equity or greater multiple times. It's fairly standard really. Consider this: I played about 130 hours of poker in August at about 30 hands per hour. For the mathematically inclined amoung you that comes out to something like 4000 hands last month. Online I would often play 4000 hands in a day. The sample size variance associated with the small number of hands I played is absurd. Although my edge is far bigger in live poker the magnitude of it is not nearly big enough to compensate for sample size.

I am definitely going to the Borgata open. In fact, I will be spending the entirety of the open there. I have a room booked from the 6th - 23rd which is something absurd like 17 nights. I am splitting it with a friend of mine, he's a really cool guy. I'm really excited to get out of Pittsburgh with respect to playing poker. Although I have had an awesome time in Pittsburgh with cool people and the fact that I actually find this town to be pretty cool, the poker action simply isn't good enough or big enough.

So the famous J, the guy who I blogged about in "Empathy and Poker" which is apparently far and away my most popular blog post, and I talked earlier today. He disclosed to me that he won 7.5k on the tables in the month of August. While yes, he did play a bit more than me, the fact that he won more than me has approximately zero to do with our relative poker abilities. Like I indicated before, I highly doubt that he has taken any of the bad beats that I have while I know for a fact that he has given some of them. Take, for example, the hand where he won with queens against my kings. In that particular hand I had ~80% equity in the hand, yet I still lost. Sample size variance is insane; And his bet sizing still sucks.

For the totality of August I won the previously mentioned 4k, whatever. My goals for September are pretty much to grind as hard as I can in AC. After AC I am heading to New York to hang out with people before I go to Vegas. I leave for AC on Tuesday and the whole thing will cost me ~$900. I hope to play exclusively 2/5 in AC. I am going to bring 5k in cash with me to the Borgata and if I drop 3k I will move down to 1/2. I highly doubt this happens but runbad knows no bounds. My goals for September are as follows:

Play my A or B game the whole time - I had a number but it's just dumb to have that
150 hours on the tables in Atlantic City
Enjoy Life

Live the dream motherfuckers.

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